UPDATED 7/31/13: Percy Harvin will have hip surgery. He is projected to be out until late November 2013.
At this time last year, we were extremely bullish on Percy Harvin as a number one wide receiver in fantasy football. For the first half of the year, he did not disappoint. In 9 games Harvin had 62 catches, 677 yards and 3 touchdowns. Harvin also ran the ball for 96 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries.
Harvin suffered an ankle sprain and by all accounts was shut down for the rest of the season because of a dispute with head coach Leslie Frasier.
Harvin is now a Seattle Seahawk. He is reunited with former Vikings, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and receiver Sidney Rice. He is playing with a better quarterback in Russell Wilson. The Seahawk offense also features a defense drawing, dominant back in Marshawn Lynch.
All the factors show Harvin will have a easier time against defenses that won’t focus solely on him. So how come we aren’t so high on Percy’s fantasy production in 2013? Major fantasy football success hinges on two things: opportunity and touchdowns. For of all of Harvin’s all purpose versatile greatness, he has never scored more than 8 offensive touchdowns in a season. In Seattle, unless there is a major injury, he will continue to get limited looks in the redzone. Marshawn Lynch is Pete Carroll’s closer at the goal line. In passing situations, the 6’3 Sidney Rice and the 6’5 Zach Miller are better red zone options. Throw in Russell Wilson’s 4 rushing touchdowns in 2012 and Harvin begins to be more of a great ‘real life’ football player that wreaks havoc on defensive schemes than a major points contributor to your fantasy football team. Our prediction, Harvin would be a good flex play which makes him someone to look at around the 5th-8th rounds for good draft value. If healthy, we believe he’ll total around 900-1,000 offensive yards and score 5 touchdowns. You could go higher, but our prediction of his output would not justify doing so.