Buy Low and Sell High

Inside the Redzone staff September 24, 2011 5

 

Cam Newton | Sell High | QB1

Do Cam Newton's cloning abilities help his on field play? (Photo by CEBImagery.com)

 

by Inside the Redzone staff – Bill Seng, JF, Matt Hall, Dan Lehto, Chris Mrnak, and Brian Frett

 

After two weeks, the fantasy owner has one of three records, 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. It’s still early enough to turn it around, and for the proactive fantasy owners who are 2-0, looking to sell high on players that may not sustain the pace that helped them get to 2-0. Week 3 is a nice intro into the trading season. Once teams drop to 0-3, that’s when you hear spirits get broken, and you lose some of the league’s trading partners.

Our writers put their heads together and butt heads over the list of players to buy and sell, and what kind of fair value you’ll see in exchange.

 

Bill Seng

Buy Low

LeGarrette Blount – He is a talented and rugged back. If he can get better at the goal line and Raheem Morris would be easier with the hook when the team is trailing, he’d be the perfect RB2. Blount has underrated straight line speed and athletic ability. If the current owner doesn’t like the number of touches he’s getting, offer an on the rise commodity like James Starks or Willis McGahee, and see if the deal can be done.

Dez Bryant – He is proving to be a little brittle and his quarterback is dinged, but when he gets on the field, he does make things happen. Miles Austin has a hamstring issue and those can come and go. I’d buy low on Bryant and overpay a tad bit. Perhaps a combo of Fred Davis and James Starks (I know sounds like a lot – but receivers that can take over a game in streaks are at a premium).

 

Sell High

Dwayne Bowe – Had a great week 2 and could actually become a great garbage time fantasy player. But, he plays for the kooky Todd Haley, who has been known to be an extra disciplinarian at the worst time. Bowe could be a tough sell, but if he continues to get garbage time play, I’d sell for a running back like Cedric Benson if you are 1-1 or 2-0 and have depth at the position. If you can’t get that much, hold a little longer.

Reggie Wayne – Borderline sell high. He had a great game 1 and a respectable game 2 and you might not get fair value in return. Try to see if the Dez Bryant owner is frustrated and needs a body badly for week 3.

Dexter McCluster – Sell now before people realize you got a scat back. Fair value return at minimum is a WR3 or tight end with upside like Dustin Keller or Fred Davis.

 

 

JF

Buy Low

Chris Johnson – Some owners are starting to get frustrated with his play. If you got one more stud receiver – like Kenny Britt – I’d see if you can make that move.

LeGarrette Blount – Agree with Bill. People see the carries and discount his talent. I’d undercut a bit more and see if someone would take Cam Newton for him. He’s got big buzz now.

Willis McGahee – He should replace Knowshon as the starter from here on out. Actually think he’s a borderline sell high. Getting a lot of offers in the leagues I have him. I’d say a good buy low is someone like Mark Ingram or Brandon Jacobs.

 

Sell High

Cam Newton – Unless you’re in a keeper league, I’d see if I could get a WR2 or RB2 from his hot play.

Tim Hightower – Roy Helu is taking away carries. See if you can get another decent RB2/RB3 like Daniel Thomas, Tolbert/Mathews, or Shonn Greene.

Maurice Jones-Drew – Now that a rookie quarterback is at the helm and Karim is playing more snaps, that usually hurts the guy who is the team’s “only weapon”. Try to see if you can pry Matt Forte for MJD. For some reason, Forte still doesn’t get a lot of universal fantasy love

 

 

Matt Hall

Buy Low

Jahvid Best – He is a great pass catching back in a dominant pass offense. Plus they have so many weapons that it opens up the run game. Like Forte, Best doesn’t get universal love because of the injury history. Swing for the fences and see if you can move Frank Gore for Best. I know that’s a gamble.

Matthew Stafford -He is a gamer and now making all the plays, plus he throws to Megatron. If you’ve got Kyle Orton and Joe Flacco, I’d move on Staffford, while he still has the fragile label too. Perhaps you can move a sell high type guy like Dwayne Bowe, if you have the wide receiver depth.

 

Sell High

Steve Johnson – I am on his bandwagon, but how long can the Bills keep this up? I like a comparable receiver who has had a quiet first two weeks like Mike Williams.

Hakeem Nicks – Their team is a MASH unit and he is the best weapon, so defenses will lock him up and force others to step up. I think you can get a solid RB2 for him. Perhaps Jahvid Best?

 



 

Dan Lehto

Buy Low

Cam Newton – No one thought he would be able to do what he did in week 2. I have him in 2 leagues and no one wants to touch him with a 10-foot pole. Most still believe he is just waiting to falter. Unless he gets injured, he is going to be strong all year. Size, speed, vision, and a gun. Lethal! Dare I say better than Vick? He’s just surrounded by worse players and no running game to speak of. I would move a WR2 talent like Stevie Johnson, especially if you have wide receiver depth. I’d also be tempted to move a Tim Hightower for him as well. Again, I’m guessing Hightower is your flex or if you got riches at that position, he’s your 4th best back.

Chris Johnson – This guy is a stud. There is a lot of talk about how slow he has looked and Munchak equally distributing the ball. I love it, because it makes owners of him have angst. However, the owner of the Titans will fire Munchak if he does not start getting his stud the ball more. He’s a few weeks away from doing his thing. I just hope he has a couple more bad weeks, so that I can get him. I would trade Michael Turner to get Chris Johnson. I might even be tempted to move MJD to get him.

 

Sell High

LeGarrette Blount – I have him in 2 leagues and am chomping at the bit to trade him. He just had a game against the Vikings in which he scored 2 TD’s, so I don’t believe his price tag gets any higher than now. The Purple are really not impressive in the least right now either. His price tag was high to start the year and then all this Earnest Graham talk began, which totally ruined it for him. See if a Peyton Hillis owner would be interested.

Michael Turner – He has shockingly had a strong couple weeks in a row. He still has some difficulty inside the 2 and he will wear down by week 12 at the latest. I’d try to move him to get my ‘Buy Low’ favorite, Chris Johnson.

 

Chris Mrnak

Buy Low

Beanie Wells – Especially now that he has a hamstring pull. All the negativity on Wells will come back and wipe away the fact he was a top fantasy running back in the first two weeks. I’d start off low and give up a Darren Sproles or maybe Danny Woodhead, if he had another touchdown game against the Bills this weekend. See if that would make the trade happen.

Kyle Orton – Kyle Orton is in a proven system and believe he’s going to start lighting it up. Think of Jake Delhomem’s best years, which is solid platoon quarterback numbers. He could be had if you bought the fantasy owner who has him a beer at the next happy hour.

 

Sell High:

Cam Newton/ Mathew Stafford – Can they keep it up? Get yourself another WR2 or RB2 and see if that fantasy owner would buy you one more beer at the happy hour listed above.

Steven Jackson – Quad injuries linger all year. I think this slows downJackson and could be a recurring issue all year. I’d wait until he gets ‘healthy’ again and try like heck to get someone else for him. Maybe Cedric Benson because you know once he comes back from suspension, he’ll be able to play.

 

 

Brian Frett

Buy Low

Mike Williams Tampa Bay  - A very tough schedule to start the season. Antoine Winfield held VJax to only 2-32 week 1 as well, then shut out Mike Williams. Had a great TD catch taken away by penalty in week 2, by the way. Think Stevie Johnson and Dez Bryant could do the trick.

Felix Jones- Faced a tough Jets tough run defense in week 1, then only had 26-carries in 2 weeks. With Austin and Dez injured, he should be leaned on more when he gets back. I think a paltry price of Marshawn Lynch or a hot name like Dexter McCluster could be enticing enough for another owner.

 

Sell High

AJ Green- My mom could have had 10 catches on the Broncos defense without Champ and Dummerville. He still has a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball though. See if the Santonio Holmes or Santana Moss owner is enamored with the newer, hotter name.

Tony Gonzalez- Very solid player, but week 2 will be his best of the season. Sell now to someone who will bite on a big name and find one of the many good tight-ends available in a lot of leagues still. Guys to target are Fred Davis, Dustin Keller, etc.

 

Surprising names not on any of these lists: Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, Knowshon Moreno, Shonn Greene, Peyton Hillis, Santonio Holmes, Santana Moss, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Jordy Nelson, Fred Davis, Dustin Keller, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

5 Comments »

  1. Matt Hall
    Matt Hall September 24, 2011 at 1:30 pm -

    I did not even think of Tony Gonzalez but that makes a lot of sense. I think you could turn him into a WR2 or a RB2 depending on the person you are dealing with. People love Hall of Famers coming off of big games.

  2. FF Handcuffs (@FFHandcuffs) September 24, 2011 at 2:26 pm -

    Good point Matt! Which receiver would you like to buy low on more? Mike Williams Tampa Bay or Dez Bryant?

  3. Dah_veed September 24, 2011 at 6:58 pm -

    I got nobody even worth trading according to Inside the Red Zone :( What would you think of offering Forte and a scrub WR for a solid WR1 like Roddy White or Miles Austin?

  4. Inside the Redzone staff September 25, 2011 at 8:46 am -

    Ha! If the team were a 14-team or greater league, I wouldn’t, because Forte has a nice fantasy playoff schedule and running backs would be at even greater premium. If you got depth at the RB spot, I’d consider it. For upside, and you believe that hammy won’t be a year long thing, I would target Austin, if you feel like you can hold out, because he can put up mind blowing games. That’s what you want from a WR1. Roddy’s game has turned into consistency because Matt Ryan, doesn’t instinctively want to throw down-field. Think his yard per catch last year was like in the six-ish range. Sort of Reggie Wayne territory. So if you trade for White, try to make sure your number 2 receiver is explosive. Someone like Kenny Britt. You want a team that consistently scores in the 90-100 (in 50/50 leagues for sure), but more than capable of putting up 110-120 scores in case you wind up in a shoot out with other playoff teams.

  5. Inside the Redzone staff September 25, 2011 at 8:49 am -

    I understand – someone like Britt probably is not available. But even a facsimile of him. Danario Alexander (watch the knees though) or Robert Meachem. Also – I’m sure we left a lot of names off the blog. You can put cram a lot of people in this type of blog. Good luck Dave! We missed your great engergy on our site!

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